Aim 3: Project the health impact of expanding specific ENDS control policies and implementation

Aim 3 is lead by Dr. Krishna Reddy, a pulmonologist and critical care physician at MGH, Associate Professor of Medicine at Harvard Medical School, and faculty investigator in the Medical Practice Evaluation Center. Dr. Reddy’s unifying themes in his research are methods of simulation modeling, epidemiology, and cost-effectiveness analysis to provide evidence- and model-based approaches to clinical decision-making and public health policy. Dr. Reddy has lead the development of the validated Simulation of Tobacco and Nicotine Outcomes and Policy (STOP) model, in which individuals transition monthly between tobacco use states (current/former/never) depending on rates of initiation, cessation and relapse.

Aim 3 will expand the application of the STOP microsimulation model to project the behavioral and clinical impacts of e-cigarette policies by incorporating data from Aims 1 and 2.

The STOP model will allow for the projection of the impacts of e-cigarette policies in isolation and co-currently on e-cigarette and combustible cigarette use and health risks. The model allows for the evaluation of the differential impacts of e-cigarette and combustible cigarette use on population behavior and health outcomes among multiple age groups over time.

Study team members contributing to the Aim 3 analysis include Dr. Doug Levy (PI) and Dr. Krishna Reddy